BTC Cycle Monitor
Lab index Static fallback
Public refreshable dashboard

BTC Cycle Monitor

Instrument-panel view of Louis' BTC/FBTC accumulation thesis. Public sources refresh on open, then the v0.3 methodology converts live, stale, fallback, and unavailable evidence into a weighted score with coverage penalties.

As of: Window: 2025-07-09 through 2026-07-08 Source: Static fallback from local Hermes fixture
Composite cycle score
28/100

Partial accumulation

Coverage 0% 0 effective weight

v0.2 weighted composite. Missing on-chain and rotation inputs reduce coverage instead of being filled with fake neutral values.

Verdict
Accumulate
50%

T1 drawdown tranche is reached. T2 and T3 remain reserved for deeper triggers or thesis reassessment.

Cycle position

Marker = weighted composite

Ticks = target score bands. Marker uses effective weights after source confidence and freshness penalties; unavailable indicators reduce model coverage.

BTC price
$62,325 fallback spot_usd: 62325.22
ATH
$126,296 Oct 06 2025 thesis high
Drawdown
-50.7% from thesis ATH
Cycle day
275 days since ATH
365DMA
$89,729 365-day average close
0.5x365DMA
$44,864 -28.02% move from spot
Indicator table

Weighted evidence ledger

Click a row name for formula, public-method source, caveat, and why it is scored or excluded.

Target weights sum to 100. Effective weights fall when evidence is stale, fallback, sample, missing, or unverified.
Indicator Value Score Weight Status Source
Loading weighted methodology...
Weighted model initializing Coverage pending Live sources not refreshed yet 0 broker/API execution paths Missing indicators are unscored
Strategy panel

Tranche state

  • SignalAccumulate
  • Target50% deployed now, reserve 25% for each deeper trigger
  • MethodWeekly DCA + reserved tranches
T1$63,148 (-50%)reached -> 50%
T2$44,204 (-65%)next -> 75%
T3$37,889 (-70%)later -> 100%
Spot is 1.30% below the -50% level. T2 requires a -29.09% move from current spot.
Invalidation and rotation

Rules visible on screen

  • RecoveryWeekly close above $101,037 (-20% from ATH) -> reassess lower-tranche waiting.
  • New highNew ATH above $126,296 without a bottom print -> thesis invalidated.
  • Data riskCore source stale or failing -> switch dashboard to risk-off/stale mode.
  • AltsLive ETH/BTC and BTC-dominance context is now included as a small-weight rotation signal.
RHODL, percent-supply-profit, and liquidation-style heatmaps remain unscored until deterministic, timestamped source adapters exist.
Methodology / Weights

v0.3 weighted evidence model

Public TA and cycle frameworks are translated into deterministic indicators with caveats, source confidence, and explicit exclusions.

Awaiting score model
effectiveWeightPct = targetWeightPct × availability × sourceConfidence × freshnessMultiplier. Missing or sample inputs lower coverage; they are not redistributed into the live score.
Contribution table for the active score model.
Indicator Target Effective Contribution Evidence
Awaiting live or fallback score model.
Live source refresh

Public no-key adapters

On open or refresh, the dashboard pulls browser-safe public sources for price, daily history, Fear & Greed, block context, and derivatives positioning. Each adapter reports its own state; failures degrade to the static fallback instead of blanking the page.

Live Derived Fallback Unavailable
Awaiting first refresh
Source freshness

Static data contract

  • 365DMAStatic fallback dated 2026-07-08 UTC; live refresh recomputes from CoinGecko daily history when available.
  • ATHStatic fallback thesis assumption; live refresh prefers CoinGecko market-data ATH.
  • UnverifiedRHODL, percent supply in profit/loss, and true liquidation heatmaps remain visible with target weights or overlays, but effective weight 0 until deterministic, timestamped source adapters exist.
  • RuntimePublic no-key fetches only; no secrets, brokerage APIs, paid APIs, or LLM calls.
Methodology

What changed in Phase 2

The score is no longer an equal-weight core average. It uses target weights, then discounts each row for source availability, source confidence, and freshness. Fresh CoinMetrics community inputs can now score MVRV-Z, NUPL, realized price, and Puell; RHODL and percent-supply-profit stay visible but unscored until stable server snapshots exist.

0.5x365DMA remains the thesis anchor, but it no longer hides missing evidence. If coverage is under 55%, the headline verdict becomes partial-data monitoring instead of an action-sounding accumulation call.
Footer disclaimer

Decision support, not trade execution

This public route is a refreshable research artifact with a deterministic fallback. It is not financial advice, does not forecast future prices, does not execute trades, and does not connect to brokerage or wallet infrastructure. Missing or sample indicators are explicitly labeled so they are not confused with live measured values.